Pipes:
The Soviet Union military build-up is, was a very
positive phenomenon in terms of the assumptions we had made. The dominant
assumption in the United States as you know, in the '50s and particularly '60s
under Secretary McNamara, was the doctrine of mutually assured destruction,
which assumed without really deep thought being given to the subject that
nuclear weapons have no utility except as a deterrent. That is to say, they
have altered the traditional function of warfare which was to win, because
with nuclear weapons, you cannot really win. With this being so, and this
was taken to be an axiom, much as a scientific axiom, not subject to
reinterpretation on the basis of different ideologies or different national
cultures, it was presumed that the Russians think in the same way. So, we
decided pretty much in the '60s to allow the Russians to catch up with us in
terms of nuclear deterrent on the assumption that if they have an effective
deterrent, they will become more stable because they will be less
frightened. You know, as long, the argument...run, as
long as we have consumer preponderance, the Russians will be nervous, edgy
and possibly aggressive. So, we allow them to catch up. And it is generally
agreed that by 1969 they did catch up. So that in effect we both had a
deterrent. It was assumed at the time that, therefore, they would stop their
build-up and this would make possible arms control agreements leading to
cutbacks and so on. Well, the people who developed this theory were on the
whole scientists and engineers who had very little knowledge of, or interest
in, foreign cultures and ideologies. People of that kind generally aren't
interested in this matter. So, they absolutely ignored the fact that in
Russian literature, beginning with the late '50s but through the '60s a very
different point of view was expressed. And the point of view was that,
indeed, nuclear weapons, far from serving only deterrent purposes had become
the decisive weapons of modern warfare. Just as the machine gun decided the
war of 1914—18, and the tank, the war of 1939-45, so nuclear weapons will
decide if there will be a World War III. So they sought not only a deterrent
that was equal to ours, but a first strike capability, and they went ahead
with this in the '70s, building to our great surprise, a next generation of
nuclear weapons far beyond anything we imagine, enormous scope, enormous
force and yield and increasing accuracies. Now, for a number of years the
people whose responsibility it was to explain these phenomena, mainly the
intelligence community, where it was so imbedded in the previous hypothesis,
which they took to be an axiom, that they explained away this build—up in
such terms as, well, the Russians always had, were very insecure, there
must be a margin of safety so, they're building more, even though it's
useless, or that they have now a new enemy...China and so on,
so forth. But the notion that they are building up something for the purpose
of winning a nuclear war, if it should be...didn't enter
their minds, even when the evidence was overwhelming. And all you have to do
is read what they were saying and look at what they were building. The mere
fact that they were putting the bulk of their forces in ICBMs which were
land-based and, therefore, very vulnerable indicated that they didn't expect
to be struck first, but do the first strike themselves. Well, it is in this
connection that some of us began to wonder whether we are not making a
fundamental mistake, you know, mistake that would have the tragic
consequences and not unlike that which the French committed in the '30s when
they built the Maginot Line. The Maginot Line was built to fight World War
I. In the meantime, the Germans were developing mechanized, motorized
warfare, whose purpose it was to break through fortresses such as the
Maginot Line. But no attention was paid to this, except by some mavericks
like General de Gaulle and others, who were not listened to. The question
was now whether we are not basing our strategy on a totally faulty premise,
namely that the Russians do not intend to use these weapons. And in this
connection, I got involved in something called Team B which was appointed by
President Ford and George Bush, as head of the CIA, to look into the matter
and to come up possibly with new interpretation.