Watkins:
I think it might be useful
now to give you the same briefing that I gave to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Saturday morning,
the 5th of February, 1983. This was at 9 o'clock in the morning. We were assembled down in
General Vessey's office, just the five of us. I had asked General Vessey a couple of days
before, following a JCS meeting, that I'd be permitted to present my case that I was to make to
the President in response to the National Security Council advisers' memorandum, that each
individual chief would be asked his views. I asked Vessey to allow me to give that presentation
to all the chiefs. He set it up for Saturday morning. No other chief at that point had taken a
position that I knew of, we certainly hadn't discussed it in open session, about where we were
going in response to the questionnaire from the national security adviser. I had been working
probably now about one month on this in specific, two weeks intensely since my last visit with
Teller. I had two visits with Edward Teller. And Edward Teller is a fascinating individual, and
you watch his rate of vibration, and when it's high on a subject, you better listen. There's an
experiment in engineering you do, in theoretical mathematics, called a vibrating read
experiment. And when I watched Dr. Teller vibrate on the subject of technology, where the
Soviets were, where we were, where he was in X-ray laser experimentation at Livermore on his
nuclear pump laser, so-called Excalibur system, listening to all that and listening to his
intensity and his feeling that the United States was missing a window of opportunity in the
technological field that would be devastating were we not to move it now. And having heard all
the other briefings I had on technology, I was convinced that it was time to make the move. So I
had prepared now this presentation, which I'd like to give you, because I think it gives you a
logic train about SDI and the Joint Chiefs, which is very critical, because following this
briefing the Joint Chiefs adopted this as the approach we would not only take from Admiral
Watkins presentation to the President, but, rather, we would present it as the Joint Chiefs'
unanimous approach, which I felt was the most exciting thing that I had ever done in all my 41
years in the military, without any question, to bring consensus to that group that morning had a
powerful impact on me personally. I did not expect the chief of staff of the Air Force or the
chief of staff of the Army, or the chairman necessarily, come aboard. But this is what I gave to
them. And I'm going to present it to you as I would have presented it to the President, because
I think it's important that you hear exactly the presentation that I gave the Joint Chiefs. Now,
I'm going to say, "Mr. President," but you recall now, we're in a meeting in the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, five of us, Saturday morning. This is not the President himself, but it's a dry run, you
might say, for my presentation that I anticipate giving the President a week later on the 11th
of February, when we met with him at 12 o'clock to 1:30. "Mr. President, I strongly support the
triad. I recognize the need for strategic diversity, potential for hedging and target
flexibility. Multiple systems complicate Soviet military planning and resource allocation and
therefore must be retained. I strongly support your initiatives to improve the survivability and
endurance of strategic command and control, especially in the post-attack period, and I support
Peacekeeper development as part of the triad for arms control leverage. Otherwise, there's
little incentive for Soviets to negotiate, because we're already doing it for them. "To show
NATO allies we, too, are willing to modernize land-based systems and accept them on our own
sovereign territory, and, most importantly, the Soviets can now threaten our ICBMs to an extent
we cannot threaten his. So, I support the continuing research and development on a wide range of
alternative, with more focus on small land mobiles and ballistic missile defense, for example,
to facilitate future deployment options, if the Soviets fail to respond to our arms control
initiative. "Unfortunately, we've allowed current public debate to become too complex and too
focused on the narrow question of basing mode A versus basing mode B. We need to recognize that
in large measure your program is fast-restoring and acceptable margin of safety to America after
nearly two decades of neglect. But we must find a better way to present the case in a larger
context. I sense an opportunity now, one that holds out the possibility of moving toward an
exciting new strategy, a new vision which can capture the imagination of the American people. "I
believe this is far more important than placing nearly sole emphasis on a specific basing mode.
I'll discuss it in a moment, but first let me say where I'm headed with Peacekeeper. Your
modernization program results in a significant improvement to air and sea legs, B-1B, Stealth
Alcom, Trident submarine, Trident II missile. You're beginning to create a symmetry strongly in
our favor in these two legs. New capability is already being deployed with the first squadron of
B-52s, B-52 Alcoms. You ought to take more credit for it. Your program gives highest priority to
strategic command and control systems that can survive and endure even after an attack. Your
priorities are on the mark. We simply must be able to communicate with and control our strategic
forces before, during and after an attack. This is a vital element of deterrence not normally
understood by Americans as the underpinning of the triad, and it warrants more publicity. "More
importantly, it's vital for our own self-confidence that we can effectively employ the systems
we already have across the entire strategic spectrum. We need confidence-building measures for
our own nation as much as we do between the Russians and ourselves. Assured post-attack control
is especially vital. It visibly demonstrates our resolve to persevere, even if attacked. We
probably need to do even more in this decade, and then demonstrate this capability to the
Soviets at an early date, like 1986-'87. "Certainly, we would all like high ICBM survivability,
but, at best, this demands complex and costly systems and open-ended resource constraints. The
scientific community is split on the technical feasibility of achieving survivability through
fixed base modes. And even if a complex basing mode did provide short-term survivability,
there's clear evidence that any immobile target can never be survivable for very long. Efforts
to make them so will be extraordinarily costly. It would continue to generate a public sense of
hopelessness that there is no end in sight to the perennial back and forth regarding the fixed
sovereign soil systems. "Fortunately, you brought B-1 back to life and converted Trident II from
the rhetoric to a viable program. Therefore, we do not now need the same degree of ICBM
survivability required by the previous administration's policies. The danger is that seeking
high survivability through a costly, complex basing mode could lead to loss of the entire
Peacekeeper program in Congress. Any such basing mode will be seen as having high risk, and that
it will not be survivable for very long. We've tried the best complex approaches we can devise
over the last several years, but without any success. Fine-tuning on multiple protective
shelters or your closely-spaced basing concept is a poor bet. "Rejection of Peacekeeper again by
Congress would be devastating to the United States. We can't lose again. Therefore, I recommend
a new strategic direction and a new role for Peacekeeper. The strategy in a moment. First, I
recommend a reduced Peacekeeper deployment in existing silos. Low numbers are adequate to
threaten Soviet heavy ICBMs, but will not be destabilizing. Keeps production base for breakout
if arms control falters, thus is an incentive for real arms control. "This approach is not
without risk, but chances of success are better than with other alternatives. Congress rejected
silo-based Peacekeeper as an interim solution because a credible, survivable, permanent basing
mode had not been presented to them. But we can convince Congress that high survivability is not
essential to deterrence, given the other improvements in your program, if we place it within a
longer-term strategic objective. Peacekeeper in silos admittedly depends on launch under attack
for survivability. National policy is properly not to rely on launch under attach. "But like it
or not, we have on a de facto basis depended on launch under attack for five plus years, and
must do so, in any case, for about five more, until 1988, even if closely-spaced basing were to
be approved. At least with the command and control improvements, we can execute launch under
attack much more reliably by 1988. Silo-based Peacekeeper, admittedly, is not adequate for the
long-term, but may be acceptable for this decade, provided Peacekeeper in silos is accompanied
by transition to a new, long-term strategy. "Here's the vision that I talked about earlier. I
spoke of long-term objectives earlier, the new strategic vision. It should probably be based on
defense as opposed to offense, or retaliation. Destroy his forces as far from our shores as
possible. Exactly our policy in conventional warfare today. Exciting new defense R and D
possibilities have opened in recent years. We should protect the American people and our allies,
not just avenge them. "New long-term strategy will help curb growth of offensive arms and less
sensitive to Soviet responses. We'll move conflict away from the United States, a strategy
consistent with our historical approach in conventional war fighting. The opportunity, I think,
is there to alter long-term strategic objectives, and the timing is now. Your program is making
us strong enough without such heavy focus on ICBM survivability. "The logical next step in
American policy is to shift focus to strategic defense. In past, weapons systems limitations at
the time drove our policy. In the 1950s and '60s, we had a policy of assured destruction,
dependent on deterrence by punishment. In the '70s and '80s, we had the counter military or
counterforce policy. It depends on deterrence by denying Soviets their goals, but still through
punishing attacks. Future? The policy should be to deny the Soviet their goals by protecting
insofar as possible our people and our allies and their homelands, not by attacking the Soviets.
"The summary, then: In moving to this new strategy, a strategy of forward strategic defense,
there are two transitional steps. The first and foremost is to change our thinking. The
destructiveness of nuclear weapons cannot and should not be denied. Complete protection of our
people is not possible. But former administrations as well as many strategic thinkers have
enshrined vulnerability as a positive good. We have argued it is stabilizing and thus desirable
for our people in our cities to be held hostage. In my opinion, this is neither moral nor
sensible. "Thus, the first step is to think through the implications of a significant active
defense for North America and our allies. The second step is technological. We must follow, this
must follow after the conceptual thinking. Thus, we're not ready to launch a Manhattan Project
on defense. The specific technical aspects of forward strategic defense are less important than
the overall vision. This approach will take time, perhaps to the end of this century, but there
is at least as good a chance that we can do this as there was of sending a man to the moon and
returning him safely to earth. The advantage of forward strategic defense are obvious. We move
the battle from our shores and skies. Thus, we are kept from the dangerous extremes of (a) a
threatening preemptive strike; or (b) passively absorbing a Soviet first strike. And so, we found
the middle ground. It's more moral and therefore far more palatable to the American people.
"Summary: We are strong and getting stronger. Your program is making us so. We need not
apologize so much for the partial frailty of one leg of the triad. Peacekeeper in silos will add
to our growing strength. High survivability is not essential. We should set a new long-term
strategy now, one based on the more sociologically acceptable concept of defense far from our
shores rather than offense. We are not ready to begin an immediate hardware program, but we can
set a new course and establish a goal like JFK did: "Land a man on the moon in this decade." If
you agree in this vision, Mr. President, the entire national security community must begin the
additional and difficult thinking needed before you present such a concept to the American
people. "What is important now is to build up and then exude confidence in our own ability to
deter. Your approved programs are already closing the 'window of vulnerability.' We don't need
much more than Peacekeeper plus already approved programs. The American people will understand
this vision of forward strategic defense and will support it. You should consider presenting
this new vision to them and stop the basing mode A versus basing mode B debate, which is so
debilitating." I then thank the chief for allowing me to present it. We had about a half an hour
debate, and the chiefs all said, "We agree with Watkins. Let's now build a presentation to the
President that will be given by Chairman Vessey," which we did. And my staff, two principal
staff people working on my paper and my approach to this helped in preparing that presentation
to the President, which went back and reviewed prior decisions, a baseline review of the
strategic posture vis-à-vis the Soviet, and then wrapped up with this. And I think the most
important event that occurred on the 11th of February, when we talked to the President for an
hour and a half, was that after Secretary Weinberger presented his new concept of basing, which
was much like the old one, but strengthened and so forth, he turned to the President and said,
"Mr. President, now I've presented you my opinion of what we should do in making your
presentation to Congress after the first of March. On the other hand, you should be aware that
the Joint Chiefs do not agree. They have another approach, and you should hear them now." And
I've always said after that, that I considered that to be the ultimate in the democratic
process, that Cap Weinberger understood the law and he encouraged thoughtful debate on positions
that might counter his own. I didn't see that in the prior administration, and I don't have
experience with the ones before that. But I can tell you that that was a great day in my opinion
for the country, to allow the military people to come forward on such an important matter, and
make a presentation that moved us in almost a diametrically opposed direction to what we had
been on for a couple of decades.