Sagdeev:
There are two aspects of this proposal, or I wouldn't even
call it "proposal," it's a kind of you know, a kind of wishful thinking. One
aspect is if it is realistic or not to share technology in such sensitive
areas. If it would consider the evolution of secrecy, of embargo on
different hardware, on scientific instrumentation, on industr—industrial
tools, you would see that even very benign, completely platonic things are
under embargo. You would not believe that such sensitive issues like
military technology, dedicated for anti-ballistic missiles could be shared.
It's unbelievable; I don't think it's... But, possibly, President Reagan
sincerely believes that he could share technology for this particular thing,
but I have heard remarks of, from American professional military
politicians. They consider it is as extremely unrealistic, unlikely, on the
basis that even if certain dedicated technology could be shared, very
difficult to separate, to draw the line between SDI technology and other
military applications. So, this is one aspect. The second aspect, which is
much more profound and much more important, is, suppose this technology will
be shared and, by some magic, in the end both sides would possess two
completely identical space shields. Is it good or not? I con, I would
consider this situation as extremely fragile and unstable. Even more, it's
provoking to, to the crisis, to the instability, because, as a by-product,
as imminent by-product, each of the shields would have a capability to kill
instantly its vis-a-vis in space, and to do it it is not necessary to apply
the full firepower accumulated in each of the space shields. You can use
only a small fraction, maybe one percent, maybe even smaller, of firepower
to kill vis-a-vis. And in order to, to understand why it is so easy, you
have to consider that SDI asset of each of the sites, space-flying
objects, they are flying along their orbits just like ICBMs or warheads
would fly. The only difference is that the orbits of SDI spacecrafts of
battle stations, of common satellites, their orbits would be known, much
before the moment, much earlier than the moment when one of the sides would
be tempted to kill the other. So it's much easier to target. Second, the
number of SDI assets in space would be much smaller than the number of ICBMs
or warheads, or decoys, maybe one, two hundred only. The third, it would be
very difficult to protect them, physically. For, for example, warheads, they
are protected very well, because they have to survive the re-entry to the
atmosphere, so thermal protection, mechanical protection against, such
sophisticated things like space mirrors for lasers, for example, sensors,
very difficult to protect them. They are very sophisticated, very large,
extended. So if you would bring together all these arguments, you can come
to the numbers less than one percent. So that means that final configuration
which is considered as a goal in SDI program is unstable.