Interviewer:
NOW I WANT TO GO ON TO THAT, BECAUSE IN A SENSE YOU STARTED
WORK — WHEN YOU BECAME SCIENTIFIC ADVISER TO THE GOVERNMENT AND WHEN YOU
WERE ALSO ENGAGED IN SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH FOR THE MINISTRY OF THE DEFENSE,
YOU STARTED WORK ON WAR GAMES, STARTED LOOKING AT WAR GAMES AND SETTING UP
WAR GAMES THAT LED YOU TO SOME QUITE IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE USE OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN A WAR IN EUROPE. AND WHAT I'D LIKE YOU TO DO IS COULD YOU
JUST BRIEFLY DESCRIBE THE WAR GAMES AND TELL US WHAT CONCLUSIONS THEY
ACTUALLY LED YOU TO?
Zuckerman:
Well... as the '50s drew on, as nuclear weapons
were introduced into Europe, as they became part of NATO tactical doctrine,
one had to ask oneself whether or not battles could actually be fought with
weapons whose destructive power was such that if what was
then called a small nuclear weapon were to explode in a zone of contact
between enemy forces fighting our own. And it didn't take
much reflection, and I had had a fair amount of experience in the war, what
actually did happen, on analyzing what happened in the battles with
conventional explosives, it didn't take very... me very long to realize that
a nuclear battle would get out of hand straightaway. And what had
happened was that in the... shortly after nuclear weapons had been introduced
into Europe there... it was a... do they call them war games? I've
forgotten... between the... forces with an actual sort of play-out
to what would happen in Europe. And this was done with troops, moving troops
and the troops were allowed to use nuclear weapons. And then knowing what...
something about the destructive power of... of radius of action of a nuclear
weapon the... it became apparent that in addition to... to the Military
casualties which you said would be hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.
And there was naturally a political reaction in Western Germany,
because western Germany was going to be destroyed in the effort to save it.
Well knowing from the second World War something about military
planning, I decided ah to have a... to look at the plans or... they have
generalized plans for what... war in Europe in which nuclear weapons were
used, and it became apparent very quickly by just playing out... we...
start off by firing six artillery... nuclear artillery shells or drop so many
nuclear bombs, and the Russians just reply in kind. And it didn't take
any great genius to realize that one was going to devastate totally
the whole region in which the fighting was taking place and it... the
region would be useless for anything, and the whole... the operation would
grind to a halt or escalate. And that was the real danger, the escalation.
And that was what... why and has been the continuing thing about the
European fear that America would leave Europe, coupling to Europe... the
Americans to Europe means we believe that there would be escalation. That
the United States would be as vulnerable to Russian attack as we are
here. And nowadays of course you can say that the war games have shown and
this is recognized on all sides that if there were a conflict in Western
Europe, which became a conflagration and a mutual suicide pact between the
NATO European powers and Russia that we want the USA to join in a mutual
pact as well. That's what it would add up to. It's perfectly apparent to...
and we've only realized this lately, that at the time artillery shells
and...and the like were being introduced... nuclear artillery shells
I'm talking about, into Europe. No one had ever seen a nuclear artillery
shell fired in the proper case. Or rather no one who take... took the
decision. And one of the men who was involved in... the only trial that he
believes ever did take place of a shell, exploded under...underground or
as a test device up top, but fired as an artillery shell, a man called
Bennett O'Keefe, who was one of a party of about 30 men, most of them are
dead now. But O'Keefe has given a description of what happened. And
as he put it, I think the shell was fired about... in placement.
And the shell was made to burst about ten miles away. And as he said,
anybody who'd been looking towards it would have been blinded. That
the...the shock was... the moral shock was incredible. That anybody...
anyhow within the zone unprotected would have been killed. But there you've
got to add it up. It wouldn't be one artillery shell that would be
going. It would be tens of artillery shells. There would be bombers... and in the same
way we've got to recognize the... our own... it wouldn't matter who
started the use of of these shells. Nobody would have the experience of
knowing what it's like. They would have had the experience of knowing what a
conventional artillery shell did. And so you would have had chaos of a
fantastic kind. And then there's some other thing. You don't have teams
of physicists rushing on the battlefield to decide whether or not what was
fired was a 10-kiloton, a 5-kiloton device or a 100-kiloton. You report back
that nuclear shells are being used, that nuclear bombs are
being dropped and you reply not with a... not with an equivalent one, you
reply with a bigger one. Kilotons become megatons, and then of course
there's... just following the conventional strategy, you talk about
having to interdict the movements of reinforcements. So while you're
battling in this way as it were, over an area no bigger than greater London
you are taking out Bristol, possibly even Edinburgh, and that is what the
range is of... intermediate range nuclear missiles. And so the war
games in which these things were being played out have been played out
eve... it... it's just a business now of doing war games. They all come to the
same conclusion. I don't know of any... war games which has shed... which
has demonstrated that... there's war games in which the assumption is that
nuclear weapons will be used. I do not know of any single one that says we
can... you can win with their use.