Chayes:
I think the rail
garrison proposal is a reasonable proposal. My preference would be to stop the MX production at
this point and move to a smaller missile. I think that in terms of stability, a single warhead
missile is ideal. I think in terms of cost effectiveness, it is not going to happen. It is much
too expensive per warhead. The cost of building and the cost of maintaining the missiles. So my
own view is that a 2 or 3 warhead missile will make a great deal more sense and that can be made
mobile over a larger area, still on DOD land.... I think rail garrison is a viable system. My
own view is that we should not build any more MX missiles. Perhaps we should think about
mobility for 50 that we have built or perhaps we just leave them at 50 and hope that is not too
tempting a target. I think we have to begin to think about mobility. As I said it's a political
necessity, will become a political necessity, but it makes sense militarily. If there's any
reason to worry about pre-emption at any stage of a war that began inadvertently, it is
important not to have lucrative targets. I think that ideally from the point of view of
stability, Midgetman single-warhead missile does make sense, but from the point of view of cost
effectiveness, it is not viable. It is not just the cost, the per warhead cost of building it.
It is the operational cost of keeping it going and maintaining it. Therefore I think it makes a
lot of sense to be thinking about a two or three warhead missile, with penetration aids that can
be placed on DOD lands. But I want to say that I don't think there is enormous urgency in doing
this. I think we need to modernize, we need to do it gradually. But we talked about initial
operating capability, IOC, of 1986 as if the day after that the Soviets were going to start
to...launch missiles. Well we are now in 1988 almost and we are looking at a period in which the
reductions of strategic offensive forces under a new agreement might be so drastic that
the...not perhaps the initial 50 percent cuts, but a second agreement, that there may be no need
for mobility. So I think we need to continue to keep programs like the Midgetman program in R
and D, but I think to go ahead and modernize before we see the shape of future arms control
agreements would be very foolish.