WAR AND PEACE IN THE NUCLEAR AGE – TAPES 009093-009094 MUCHKUND DUBEY

India’s Nuclear Weapons Policy

Interviewer:
WHAT IS YOUR BACKGROUND ON THE NUCLEAR SUBJECT, WHAT ARE YOUR CONNECTIONS, WHAT IS YOUR ASSOCIATION WITH THE NUCLEAR ISSUE?
Dubey:
Well I started my association with the nuclear issues in 1982 when I went to Geneva as the proponent representative of India to the European offices of the UN in Geneva. In that capacity I was also the leader of the Indian delegation to the conference on disarmament. And which is the only negotiating body on disarmament issues in the UN system. I also participated in the discussions on disarmament issues in the first committee of the General Assembly. And in the United Nations disarmament commission during those three years. After returning to Delhi it was the end of September, 1985. I had been in charge of disarmament in the Ministry of as additional secretary. Moreover I have been lecturing a great deal on the problems of nuclear war and the nuclear arms race, peace. And I have also been writing in different journals and magazines on nuclear issues.
Interviewer:
CAN YOU TELL US WHAT THE CURRENT INDIAN POLICY IS VIS-A-VIS NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
Dubey:
Well we think that the nuclear weapons have no utility whatsoever as weapons of war.. They are weapons of mass annihilation because they destroy belligerence and non-belligerence alike. As you know according to the recent scientific studies, even a fraction of the nuclear arsenals... suggesting nuclear arsenals if they are used that can bring about nuclear winter which would destroy all traces of human life on Earth altogether. We therefore feel that the nuclear weapons should be eliminated. We also therefore do not believe in the theory of nuclear deterrence. It is our view that this theory or doctrine has been the single most important factor responsible for the nuclear arms race. Contrary to the claims of the believers in this doctrine it is our view that the nuclear deterrence has not brought security to anyone. Actually it has made the world very, very insecure and has greatly enhanced the fear of the outbreak of nuclear war. We therefore feel that there should be a very comprehensive ambitious nuclear disarmament program whereby nuclear weapons are eliminated altogether.
Interviewer:
TELL ME AGAIN WITHOUT THE EXAMPLE OF THE NUCLEAR WINTER WHAT THE CURRENT POLICY IS IN INDIA.
Dubey:
Well, we in the government of India feel that the nuclear weapons do not serve any purpose at all. They are the weapons of mass annihilation because they destroy belligerence and non-belligerence alike. Therefore they cannot be treated as weapons of war. For the same reasons we also do not believe in the doctrine of nuclear deterrence. And this is because we feel that this doctrine has been the single most important factor responsible for fueling the nuclear arms race. This doctrine has instead of bringing security to those who adhere to it has made the world very insecure and it has also brought the world closer to the brink of the outbreak of nuclear war. And that's why we believe that the only way out for mankind is to agree on ambitious nuclear disarmament measures which aim at the elimination of nuclear weapons altogether.
Interviewer:
IS IT CORRECT TO SAY THAT INDIA IS KEEPING HER NUCLEAR WEAPONS OPTION OPEN?
Dubey:
No, not at all. Because...
Interviewer:
QUESTION AGAIN.
Dubey:
Uh, not at all. Because our leaders have repeatedly announced that we have no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons. And we have demonstrated over the past thirteen years since our first explosion of peaceful nuclear device that we don't...intend to acquire nuclear weapons.
Interviewer:
WHAT IS THE PRESENT PRIME MINISTER'S VIEW ON THIS?
Dubey:
Well the present Prime Minister's view is that India does not believe in nuclear weapons and would not like to acquire nuclear weapons.
Interviewer:
WHAT IS INDIA'S CURRENT POLICY REGARDING NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AS A PROBLEM?
Dubey:
Well India is in favor of genuine nuclear non-proliferation in the sense of elimination of nuclear weapons altogether. We however feel that the Non-Proliferation Treaty as such is not at all a measure of nuclear disarmament. According to us the... really effective path to nuclear disarmament is a freeze on the development, testing and production of nuclear weapons on a reduction in nuclear weapons with the view to their complete elimination. And that is also the real path to nuclear non-proliferation. This is the kind of regime that we had advocated at the initial stage when the Non-Proliferation Treaty was being negotiated. Unfortunately it was the end. Our point of view was sidetracked. Nuclear weapons were legitimized in the position of a few nuclear weapon states and unequal and discriminatory obligations were imposed on non-nuclear weapon states. That is why we have since then been opposed to Non-Proliferation Treaty in principle.
Interviewer:
IF THE SUPER POWERS DISARMED, WOULD INDIA SIGN THE NPT?
Dubey:
Uh, if the super powers disarm and if all the facilities for the future production of nuclear weapons were either destroyed, were all brought under effective contribution India would certainly be a party to that regime that will bring that about. That regime did not necessarily mean the revival or the continuation of the NPT Treaty.
Interviewer:
PAKISTAN HAS SAID THAT IF INDIA SIGNED NPT, PAKISTAN WOULD. COULD YOU COMMENT ON THAT?
Dubey:
Well we have already pointed out...I have already pointed out that our objection to the NPT Treaty is a principle one. And it doesn't depend on the attitude that any individual non-nuclear weapon state may adopt. And the objections that I raise to the NPT Treaty remains varied and so long as they remain varied we — it will be difficult for us to sign the NPT.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Program and India’s National Security

Interviewer:
HOW DOES INDIA CURRENTLY EVALUATE THE STATUS AND INTENTIONS OF THE PAKISTAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM?
Dubey:
Our Prime Minister has expressed reservations on the professedly peaceful purposes of the Pakistan nuclear program. We have also seen numerous reports in Western newspapers which indicate that Pakistan has either already acquired or is close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability. These reports are based on interviews with imminent journalists, intelligence officials in the US government, other US senior officials and congressmen. There are also...Well here I would like to refer to the very recent interview given by the ex- US Ambassador in Pakistan, Mr. Hinton... where he said that, "The developments in the Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs are such as to make it very difficult for others to believe that it is consistent with the peaceful nuclear program." Then there are many inferential evidences which would indicate that Pakistan has already acquired or is about to acquire nuclear weapons. These relate to the claim by an imminent Pakistan scientist that they have already acquired the capability of enriching uranium and very simply, they have claimed that even to the beyond the weapon grade level, 93.5 percent that they have claimed. Whether did you know that 90 percent is enough for manufacturing a nuclear weapon. There is also the clandestine nature of the, Pakistan's nuclear program. The whole Kahuta plant is a confidential plant. Then you have you are most of course aware of the reports about the Pakistanis have even acquired components and equipment in a clandestine manner. The krypton triggering device, the sophisticated industrial photographing missionaries and so on, so forth. And all this leave a serious doubt in our mind and this, these are the things which, which, which are very difficult to ignore.
Interviewer:
WHAT ARE INDIA'S CURRENT SECURITY CONCERNS?
Dubey:
Well our security concerns are like those of any sovereign independent state. We want to pursue our development plans free from outside interference and in an atmosphere of peace and harmony. We also do not want any interference in our affairs in a threat to our national integrity and independence from outside. And therefore we feel that the most important factor for our security is a fabric of international relations which is stable and which is helpful. We feel that big power rivalry is not conducive to the creation of that kind of atmosphere. We also feel that the very distant of... distance of nuclear weapons has the potentiality of creating tension. It is and does not create a stable situation. And that is the reason why we have joined the Non-Aligned Movement, the sixth power initiative. In speaking against foreign bases, against big power rivalry and hegemony and against the existence of nuclear weapons and speaking in favor of the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Interviewer:
HOW DOES THE PAKISTAN PROGRAM THREATEN INDIA'S SECURITY?
Dubey:
Well the Pakistan will acquire a deterrence and given our past experience in the three wars that we had it clearly poses a threat to our territorial integrity and independence if Pakistan comes to acquire nuclear capability... or if it is, nuclear weapon capability if it has not already done so.
Interviewer:
WHAT WOULD INDIA'S RESPONSE BE TO A PAKISTANI TEST?
Dubey:
Well I can only quote our Prime Minister who said that, "In that eventually we will have to review our present nuclear policy."
Interviewer:
WE MENTIONED CHINA AS BEING A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE PAKISTAN PROGRAM. IS THAT SOMETHING YOU CAN COMMENT ON? IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE?
Dubey:
Well we have come across number of reports indicating that China is collaborating in the development of Pakistan's nuclear capability. There were, there were two or three reports by Jack Anderson. There was also the report by Senator Cranston. In one of the reports Senator Cranston is reported to have said that in the hearing in one of the Senate committees the CIA could not convince him that China was not cooperating in the development of Pakistan's nuclear capability. But on the other hand, we have also taken note of the denials made by the Chinese at a fairly high level, at the political level, that it is China's policy not to help no nuclear weapon states in emerging into a nuclear weapon state and that China's program for nuclear collaboration with other countries are of a peaceful nature.
Interviewer:
IS THE CHINESE COOPERATION A CONCERN OR NOT?
Dubey:
Well what is important for India is to ensure that there is stability in the region and that this region is free from nuclear weapons. If Pakistan becomes a nuclear weapon state it threatens that stability. And in that event it doesn't matter with who the systems and how it has become a nuclear weapon state. So whereas we have noted the reports about the Chinese collaboration and we have reasons to derive our own conclusions out of that I do not think that from the point of view for...the perception of the security to the region in the future, we are overly concerned about that.
Interviewer:
WHY THEN DOES INDIA NOT ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL PUT FORWARD BY PAKISTAN FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE IN THIS REGION?
Dubey:
Well I think that it is sincerely a matter of confidence and credibility to put it very frankly. I think Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do and a lot of unilateralist steps to take before India can take these proposals seriously. Pakistan has to explain as to why it is following the plutonium part when it doesn't have reactors. It doesn't have even a program for that. Pakistan has to explain as to why it is enriching uranium up to the weapon grade when it doesn't have a light water plant which...and the plant that it has requires only natural uranium. Pakistan has to explain as to why it keeps on developing this nuclear on a clandestine basis. And I think that... Pakistan can... It is, it is within the... capacity and powers of Pakistan to take a series of measures which can restore confidence. And after that these kind of bilateral discussions and agreement can have some significance and meaning.

India’s Nuclear Program

Interviewer:
BY THE SAME TOKEN PAKISTAN WOULD SAY, "WHY IS INDIA STOCKPILING PLUTONIUM?" WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO THAT?
Dubey:
Well our program is a, is an open program. Even Mr. Hinton in the same interview has said that India has demonstrated to the world that it is, it's declared position of not acquiring nuclear capability. And we have... As I already said that it is about thirteen years since we exploded that device and since then in spite of repeated fears, in spite of apprehensions we have stuck to the program and our Prime Minister has said again and again that we were to stick to our peaceful nuclear program.
Interviewer:
WHY THEN IS INDIA INTERESTED IN THE LWRS AND THERE'S SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT HER ACQUIRING LIGHT WATER REACTORS FROM THE SOVIET UNION. WHY DOES SHE NEED THOSE IF SHE ALREADY HAS THE CANDU REACTORS? WHY IS IT NECESSARY TO EXTEND THE ENRICHED URANIUM SIDE?
Dubey:
Well that is if you could stop this camera now.., because I think that these things I wouldn't be able to answer because...this you have to ask the scientists because there are many aspects to it. I suppose that perhaps some of these are amenable to the indigenous capabilities that we are developing. So I can guess but I would not be able to give you an authoritative answer. Because our policy is one of self-reliance... So as I said that our policy is one of acquiring self-reliance in this field which is the power to our overall economic and development policy of acquiring self-reliance. Uh, and we feel that we will go in for all the routes which will enable us to utilize our own devices, our own infrastructure. And the work, considerable amount of work that our nuclear scientists and, and, and... power scientists have already done in the country.
Interviewer:
DOES INDIA HAVE THE BOMB?
Dubey:
My answer is a, a categoric no.
[END OF TAPE 009093]
Interviewer:
YOU WERE SAYING ABOUT NUCLEAR CAPABILITY...
Dubey:
Well we demonstrated our capability of manufacturing nuclear weapons quite some time ago. So...but we would not like to brag about that. Or to try to take credit for that, because we still feel that the main advances in our nuclear program had been the peaceful directions. And it will continue to be so in the future.

Nuclear Free Zones

Interviewer:
ABOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONES. AS I UNDERSTAND PAKISTAN HAS ALSO TALKED ABOUT MUTUAL INSPECTIONS AND A BILATERAL AGREEMENT. COULD YOU COMMENT ON THAT?
Dubey:
Well I would first up take up the nuclear weap... weapon free zones and our view is that this is a, a fundamentally flawed conception. In the present nuclear age... given the nature of the deployment of nuclear weapons, given the nature of the delivery vehicles and given the demonstrated proof of the hypothesis of nuclear weapons, I do not think that there can be any part of the world which can be free from nuclear weapons or the danger of nuclear weapons. These days the delivery weapons give you a capability by which you can hit any target in the world with deadly accuracy. Even a fraction of the use of the existing arsenals can destroy life all over the world. The command, control and communication of the nuclear f... war-fighting missionary of the super powers is spread all over the world. They want the oceans to be utilized for that, the air space to be utilized for that. They also feel that the deterrent of nuclear weapons through the oceans is also their right. And given all these factors w-which is the area which is free from nuclear weapons. So we feel that nuclear weapon free zones are an illusion. It is a fundamentally flawed perception. We therefore believe in a global nuclear weapon free zone. Which means that elimination of nuclear weapons altogether from the Earth and not a-arbitrarily dividing the regions of the world and trying to make it free of nuclear weapons when you know the correct and the fundamental nature of the present nuclear war fighting missionary at the disposal of the super powers.

US Efforts toward Non-Proliferation

Interviewer:
DO YOU THINK THAT AMERICA HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN ITS EFFORTS TO STOP PROLIFERATION?
Dubey:
It is a, a relative term but I would say that on the whole there are serious doubts as to how far this policy has been effective. Again it is very difficult to demonstrate such statements by concrete evidence. There is this question of the nuclear weapon capability of South Africa and, and Israel. And there are serious doubts that these missions would not have been acquired, would acquire this capability had it not been for the existing nuclear weapons states' assistance, including that of the United States. Similarly I, we do not believe that United States is doing all that it can and it ought to do to prevent Pakistan from developing nuclear weapon capability. Pakistan was the first country against which the Symington Amendment was invoked. But in spite of overwhelming evidence that come to light from time to time, mostly from American sources themselves, year after year the US administration authorizes that conditions prevail which would not justify the invocation of the amendment. And therefore it is our view that ...there is a lot that United States can still do to prevent Pakistan from acquiring nuclear weapon capability.
Interviewer:
COULD YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE ASSISTANCE PROGRAM AND WHY INDIA FEELS SO STRONGLY THAT IT'S SORT OF A DOUBLE STANDARD ALMOST... HOW EFFECTIVE DO YOU THINK THE US HAS BEEN IN IMPEDING THE PAKISTANI PROGRAM?
Dubey:
No. I, If I think that the argument that by giving more assistance you place yourself in a position to talk to the other country, the country receiving assistance and persuade it from not developing its nuclear weapon program in the direction of acquiring nuclear capability. It's not at all a convincing argument. Uh, firstly... the events that have taken place in recent years prove that if at all it were the intentions of the United States, United States had not succeeded in its purpose. Secondly that it goes both ways. By giving assistance you develop a kind of interdependence and you give liberties to the other side. You try to get something in return for the assistance that you are giving. And you are ordered not to lose what are getting in return. You do not apply your pressures beyond a particular point. And here I have in mind the reports regarding the bases that have been given, the other facilities have been given by Pakistan. Thirdly that this assistance is being given as a part of the global strategy of the United States. And that becomes such an overwhelming argument and concern that everything else recedes into the background. And if your perception of global strategy obliges you to give more and more to Pakistan then that becomes the most important consideration. And everything rest is into the background. And we are afraid this is what is happening today.
Interviewer:
(INAUDIBLE QUESTION)
Dubey:
No... We do not agree with the argument that by giving more military assistance the nuclear weapon state or a big power places itself in the position to persuasive... persuade the country receiving assistance into not acquiring nuclear weapon capability. And this is because as I pointed out that in, in giving assistance there is a relationship of give and take that develops. And there are facilities given. The assistance given which may be regarded as so important for the overall security purpose of the country giving assistance that the the goal of using assistance for preventing the aid receiving country from developing nuclear weapons may recede into the background. And even otherwise the overall security...the overall perception of the global interest can acquire such an overwhelming you know, dominance over all other consideration... that the other goal can be just ignored or sidetracked. And we believe that this is what is happening so far as Pakistan's nuclear program is concerned. United States is concerned with a lot of more, other objectives in giving assistance than this particular objective. The evidence that are coming to our light... that is coming to our light indicates so. The reports that we have received, that also indicates so. So basically this.
Interviewer:
LET'S JUST STOP A MINUTE.
Dubey:
No. I, I do believe that this argument of arming yourself to the teeth in order to force the other party to come to the negotiating table, this argument of giving assistance in order to acquire leverage to be able to talk to the other party to behave in a more reasonable way is a double standard argument. And it, and these arguments have always been used in this fashion in the past history. And evidence in the past, present evidence indicates that this just doesn't work.

India’s Space Program

Interviewer:
...ALSO TALKS ABOUT THE INDIAN SPACE PROGRAM AS BEING A THREAT TO ITS SECURITY. HOW FAR IS THE INDIAN SPACE PROGRAM DEFENSE RELATED, IF AT ALL?
Dubey:
Well the Indian space program is to the best of my knowledge entirely for peaceful purposes. And the use that we have made of the program amply demonstrates this claim on our part. And the future thrust of our space program is also going to be in that direction.

Nuclear Disarmament

Interviewer:
IS INDIA CONCERNED ABOUT THE WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION OF PLUTONIUM AND ITS ACCESSIBILITY TO TERRORISTS?
Dubey:
No, we are certainly concerned about anything which can result in...violence, loss of human life and a degree of... any degree of instability in the world. But we do not think that this problem is at all or anywhere near as important as the problem of the existing nuclear arsenals. And we do have the suspicion that any attempt to accelerate this danger really is an attempt to divert from the supreme task of the nuclear weapon states to seriously negotiate the disarmament measures.
Interviewer:
DO YOU FORESEE A DAY WHEN INDIA WILL JOIN NPT?
Dubey:
Yes. I would say that if there is a regime in which there is an elimination of nuclear weapons from earth we would be very glad to join that regime. As a matter of fact we are systematically and honestly and consciously working towards the creation of-

India’s Views on Pakistan

Interviewer:
HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE CURRENT INTENTIONS OF PAKISTAN'S CURRENT NUCLEAR PROGRAM?
Dubey:
Uh...
Interviewer:
WHERE DO YOU THINK THEY'RE GOING?
Dubey:
Well I, as I said that we have serious reservations regarding the professedly peaceful purposes of Pakistan's nuclear program. We have seen very authoritative reports in Western newspapers indicating that Pakistan has either already acquired or is close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability. And there are...there is inferential evidence. There is evidence based on the clandestine nature of Pakistan's program. There is evidence based on what responsible people in the US administration, US Congress, have stated. So this will...
Interviewer:
IS IT TRUE TO SAY THAT THIS IS A NUCLEAR STALEMATE SITUATION IN THIS AREA BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN?
Dubey:
Well, that is something which would in one sense of the term imply that the two countries in this region, India and Pakistan, have nuclear weapons. And that these weapons are serving as deterrent and that they have no intention of using the nuclear weapons. That would be the kind of nuclear stalemate that might be created. But frankly speaking I'm not at all in favor of our moving in that direction. I would much prefer the two countries not to have nuclear weapons at all.
Interviewer:
DOES INDIA THINK THAT PAKISTAN DOES HAVE THE BOMB OR THE CAPABILITY TO MAKE THE BOMB?
Dubey:
Well we as I said that we have evidence that they have already acquired or are close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability which means having nuclear weapons, having the bomb.
Interviewer:
CAN YOU EXPLAIN BETTER?
Dubey:
Well you know, I mean...nuclear weapon... If they have already acquired nuclear weapon capability then to have the nuclear bombs is only a logical kind of, of output of it. And this really doesn't matter very much. They have it or they can have it any time but the more important thing is that w-would be if they have already acquired the nuclear weapon capability.
Interviewer:
BUT YOU DON'T KNOW IF THEY HAVE OR NOT.
Dubey:
As I said that there is an evidence overwhelming evidence from different quarters which would indicate that they have acquired or they are close to acquiring.
[END OF TAPE 009094 AND TRANSCRIPT]